When will the tourism industry under the epidemic wipe out the window of recovery?

With this epidemic, tourism companies can reflect on and strengthen two capabilities-in a normal market environment, they must be competitive; in an abnormal market environment, such as when affected by an infectious disease epidemic, they must be immune force.

Recently, some provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) have issued the "Guidelines for Guiding the Opening of Tourist Scenic Areas", and some tourist areas and operating projects have gradually started to operate normally. This phenomenon has caused concern among some industry experts.

At the conference of the State Council ’s joint prevention and control mechanism held on February 26, Liu Kezhi, director of the Department of Market Management of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, stated that on February 25, relevant departments of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued the “Revitalization of Tourism Scenic Spots to Prevent and Control the Outbreak "Guidelines", the restoration and opening up of tourist attractions should be guided by the local party committee and government, adhere to the principle of zoning and classification, and should not be "one size fits all." The opening of tourist attractions in high-risk areas of the epidemic is temporarily suspended. The opening of scenic spots in low-risk areas and high-risk areas is determined by the local party committee and government.

Regarding the situation where tourists gather in some scenic spots, Zhang Hui, vice president of the Beijing Tourism Association and dean of the Institute of Modern Tourism Development of Beijing Jiaotong University, also expressed concern to the reporters of the China Youth Daily and China Youth.com. The industry has suffered a great deal, and it is understandable that I want to recover as soon as possible, but it is still not realistic to resume the tourism industry. It is too early.

It is meaningless to resume the tourism industry prematurely

Zhang Hui believes that tourism is an industry combining spatial mobility and people gathering. Without the mobility of the space and the gathering of people, the tourism industry cannot be profitable. This characteristic of the tourism industry is contrary to the current overall policy of national epidemic prevention and control.

Secondly, the resumption of work and resumption currently advocated by the state is mainly aimed at industries that maintain the people's basic livelihood, as well as major national projects and key projects. The purpose is to prevent the occurrence of the epidemic from causing the suspension of production and social life of the entire society, and also to avoid the breakage of the international industrial chain and adversely affect future development. Tourism is not a priority area for the country's resumption of production, and resumption of production is now meaningless.

From the perspective of demand, even if the scenic area resumes production and production, there is no passenger flow. "Some time ago, Huangshan resumed business. It only received one guest a day, so a large tourist area. All managers and operators serve around one person, and they also need to protect. It is meaningless from an economic perspective." Say.

Zhang Hui believes that the recovery of the tourism industry should be gradual and should be classified for recovery. "Outdoor and natural scenic spots can be restored first. The in-house, humanistic, and performing arts may be a little later; self-driving tours may be faster, and group tours may be slower; short-range tours in domestic tourism For example, the tour around the city may resume a little faster, and the long-term and medium-long-term tours may be slower; the recovery time for inbound tourism may be a little longer. "

It will take a long time for the tourism industry to return to normal

曾 Zeng Bowei, director of the China Tourism Economics and Policy Research Center of Beijing Union University, told the China Youth Daily · China Youth Daily that the comprehensive recovery of the tourism industry needs to go through the following stages:

The first stage is the start-up recovery stage, and the first is the start-up recovery of the pest free area. At present, some tourist attractions and restaurants in the pest free area have begun to slowly recover, but the volume is still small.

The second stage is the stage of tourism recovery coexisting with the epidemic. "We are currently in this relatively complicated stage. At this time, if there is a large passenger flow in the scenic area when it is opened, it may cause a new round of transmission of new crown pneumonia. Industrial enterprises that have resumed production need only control their employees, not involving consumers The contact is relatively easy to control, but it is difficult to control tourists. Therefore, it is better to be cautious when you are not completely sure. "

The third stage is the development stage, which appears after the inflection point of the epidemic. At this time, the tourism industry will enter a stage of comprehensive revitalization. An iconic signal at this stage is that the Ministry of Culture and Tourism has issued a notice that travel agencies can start business activities. "The travel agency must be the last one to be restored, so the sign of this stage is that the travel agency resumes its business activities."

The fourth stage is the last case of patients with new coronary pneumonia being cured and discharged. Consumers ’psychological fear is completely eliminated. At this time, you can use your full power to promote the development of domestic tourism. In the fourth stage, a new and complicated situation must be considered, that is, the number of people infected with new coronary pneumonia abroad is increasing, so inbound tourism and outbound tourism still need to be more cautious.

The final stage is when the tourism industry returns to its normal operating state, and there may even be a rebound stage in the future. But it will take a long time. Zeng Bowei believes that "in the next few months, we may all be in the recovery phase coexisting with the epidemic, and we cannot rush to achieve success."

Tourism consumption rebounded after SARS

Many people think that after the epidemic is over, the tourism industry will have a retaliatory rebound. Zeng Bowei believes that retaliatory rebound is unlikely, but the rebound is still worth looking forward to. "China's tourism industry is very good from product to the entire supply system. The basic principle is that when the epidemic situation passes, the amount of consumption can still be very large. If the epidemic situation abroad is severe and outbound tourism is damaged, domestic tourism Growth may be a favorable factor. "Zeng Bowei said.

Zeng Bowei believes that Chinese people ’s consumption habits for tourism are closely related to nationality. “After SARS, consumption rebounded very strongly. Tourism income in 2004 increased by 40% compared to 2003. After the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, some people felt that In view of the impermanence of life, he wants to be happy in time, and has become more aggressive in consumption. This is a phenomenon reflected in the consumer market after the Sichuan earthquake. Under the pressure of education, medical care and housing, but most people's consumption elasticity in tourism still exists. Zeng Bowei believes that the rebound will be outstanding in October.

Regarding the rebound, Zhang Hui believes that even if it occurs, the intensity cannot be compared with the rebound after SARS in 2003. "At present, Chinese households have a high debt ratio, and the demand for repayment is rigid, while tourism consumption is elastic and must be compressed in the face of debt."

In addition, Zhang Hui believes that the new crown pneumonia epidemic is nationwide and everyone is greatly affected. The employment population in China is mainly in private enterprises. If private enterprises are to recover their vitality, wage reductions will occur. The cost of family living is high, and tourism consumption is unlikely to grow at a high income. "It may happen that there are a lot of people who travel, but with less money, the per capita consumption of tourism will drop significantly; there may be a lot of people participating in 'day trips', but the number of tourists staying there will drop significantly. Therefore, After the epidemic, the rebound of the tourism industry will not be very strong, because the rebound is not about the number of people, but the benefits of the tourism economy. "Zhang Hui said.

"+ Tourism" and "two forces"

Zeng Bowei believes that through this epidemic, the tourism industry should reflect on and think about the following aspects: First, in the event of force majeure, a plan should be prepared. Second, we should pay attention to related insurance, and how to provide better protection for enterprises and consumers when a crisis occurs. Third, tourism investment needs to be moderately cautious. Zeng Bowei said, "In the past few years, the tourism industry has been very promising, and tourism investment has grown rapidly. This epidemic will make everyone realize that this industry can be promising for a long time, but there are some risks. Overall, the tourism industry has negative growth this year. It is basically a foregone conclusion. In 2019, when many companies are expanding aggressively, they have not fully considered the corresponding risks, and the cash flow cannot be carried after the outbreak. Therefore, companies should be reasonably cautious in terms of investment. "

In Zhang Hui's view, the tourism industry is a very demand-sensitive industry, which has led to the vulnerability of the industry. With this epidemic, tourism companies can reflect on and strengthen two capabilities-under normal market conditions, there must be Competitiveness; in an abnormal market environment, such as when being affected by an infectious disease epidemic, immunity is required. The goods provided by tourism are services and are intangible. Once demand changes, it will directly damage production.

Zhang Hui believes that tourism cannot be the core of a single market for the development of enterprises. To consider the concept of "+ what", it is necessary to engage in complex business. "In this epidemic, all enterprises with tourism as the core industry have suffered a lot, but if they are composite enterprises, they have more 'earthquake resistance'. For example, an agricultural project also has tourism products. When the economy is in a downturn, the agricultural output value is still there. So we need to consider adopting the "+ tourism" approach to build a business group and avoid risks. "

Zhang Hui told the China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily that the impact of this epidemic on tourism companies should be viewed dialectically. "At present, the overall competitiveness and immunity of the tourism industry are very poor. Although a powerful company will be affected when the epidemic occurs, it will quickly develop once the epidemic is over. The development of various industries is in In the sudden social events, the enterprises with vitality will find opportunities in the crisis and form new business models. "